NOAA's view
In its ENSO diagnostic discussion issued October 8, 2026, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept an El Niño Advisory in effect and said a strong-to-very strong El Niño is likely through January–March 2027. CPC also cautions that with an event this strong, the chances of impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, "though not guaranteed." Its next monthly discussion was scheduled for November 12, 2026. (CPC discussion)
North Bay rain so far
| NWS station | Rain since July 1 | Normal to date | Percent of normal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Rosa | 0.95 in. | 2.77 in. | 34% |
| Napa | 0.59 in. | 1.58 in. | 37% |
Source: NWS San Francisco Bay Area, Area Precipitation Information product, issued 2:15 AM PST November 11, 2026 (preliminary data as of midnight).
What storms do to North Bay roofs
North Bay storms tend to find roofs under trees first: redwood and oak litter packs valleys and gutters in Mill Valley, Fairfax, Sebastopol and along the Russian River, and wind-driven rain tests ridge lines and flashing on exposed hillside homes in Marin and the Napa hills.
Scheduling around Permit Sonoma
In unincorporated Sonoma County, the pre-inspection has to happen before the new roof goes on, so build it into any winter window.
Wait or go?
Go now if the roof is failing and a dry stretch is forecast. Wait for spring if a roofer confirms targeted repairs will hold.
Insurance
See our Bay Area El Niño insurance guide.
Every roofer we work with is licensed, insured and highly reviewed by Bay Area homeowners.
Get a free replacement quoteFrequently asked questions
Is Santa Rosa wetter than Napa so far?
As of November 11, Santa Rosa had 0.95 inches (34% of normal) and Napa 0.59 inches (37%).
Will the pre-inspection delay a winter reroof?
It adds a step. Ask your roofer to schedule it before the dry window.
What fails first on North Bay roofs in heavy rain?
Valleys and gutters packed with redwood and oak litter, and ridge flashing on exposed hillside homes.
Sources
Sources reviewed November 11, 2026. Figures are published estimates and official fees, not quotes. Confirm prices, permits and requirements with your contractor and building department. This page is general information, not legal or insurance advice.